Hill city in a bend of the Tagus, and one of the hottest places on this list in July.
Forecast
31 runs of
the American model (GFS), started from slightly different data, looking two weeks
ahead. Anywhere the runs agree you can plan on it; where they spread, you can't.
Week 2 is shaded: read it for the direction — turning hotter,
breaking down into storms — not for Tuesday's number.
Modelled on the 00z run (Thu 15 Oct, 00:00 UTC). The next run should reach this page around 14:45 Madrid time.
Temperature by day °C
Each bar runs from the night's low to the day's high, averaged across the
ensemble. The short lines across each bar are the 1991–2020 normal high and low for that date, so a bar reaching past them is a warmer day than usual. Week 2 is shaded: by then the runs disagree enough that only the direction matters.
The week ahead is running about 2.5 °C above the 1991–2020 average for the date.
Rain by day mm
The percentage under each day is how many of the 31 ensemble members give at least a millimetre — the forecast's own confidence.
Thunderstorm fuel, afternoons J/kg
Nothing thundery in this window: the atmosphere never gets close to storm energy.
CAPE is how much energy a rising parcel of air has to play with between midday and nine. Above about 1000 J/kg storms are likely if anything sets them off; the percentage is how many of the 31 runs get there.
Strongest gust, by day km/h
The bar is the day's strongest gust, averaged across the runs; the percentage is how many of the 31 runs gust past 50 km/h, which is where a ridge stops being pleasant.
Wind through the day km/h
Ensemble medianControl run80% of membersstrong
Temperatures are at 2 m, in the shade — a sunny square or an exposed path will
feel several degrees hotter than the chart says.
Model grid elevation here is 532 m, against 533 m for the
place itself — every 100 m of difference is worth roughly 0.6 °C.
51 runs of
the European model (ECMWF), started from slightly different data, looking two weeks
ahead. Anywhere the runs agree you can plan on it; where they spread, you can't.
Week 2 is shaded: read it for the direction — turning hotter,
breaking down into storms — not for Tuesday's number.
Modelled on the 18z run (Wed 14 Oct, 18:00 UTC). The next run should reach this page around 13:07 Madrid time.
Temperature by day °C
Each bar runs from the night's low to the day's high, averaged across the
ensemble. The short lines across each bar are the 1991–2020 normal high and low for that date, so a bar reaching past them is a warmer day than usual. Week 2 is shaded: by then the runs disagree enough that only the direction matters.
The week ahead is running about 1.5 °C above the 1991–2020 average for the date.
Rain by day mm
The percentage under each day is how many of the 51 ensemble members give at least a millimetre — the forecast's own confidence.
Thunderstorm fuel, afternoons J/kg
Nothing thundery in this window: the atmosphere never gets close to storm energy.
CAPE is how much energy a rising parcel of air has to play with between midday and nine. Above about 1000 J/kg storms are likely if anything sets them off; the percentage is how many of the 51 runs get there.
Strongest gust, by day km/h
The bar is the day's strongest gust, averaged across the runs; the percentage is how many of the 51 runs gust past 50 km/h, which is where a ridge stops being pleasant.
Wind through the day km/h
Ensemble medianControl run80% of membersstrong
Temperatures are at 2 m, in the shade — a sunny square or an exposed path will
feel several degrees hotter than the chart says.
Model grid elevation here is 532 m, against 533 m for the
place itself — every 100 m of difference is worth roughly 0.6 °C.
51 runs of
ECMWF's AI-based model (AIFS), started from slightly different data, looking two weeks
ahead. Anywhere the runs agree you can plan on it; where they spread, you can't.
Week 2 is shaded: read it for the direction — turning hotter,
breaking down into storms — not for Tuesday's number.
Modelled on the 18z run (Wed 14 Oct, 18:00 UTC). The next run should reach this page around 13:15 Madrid time.
Temperature by day °C
Each bar runs from the night's low to the day's high, averaged across the
ensemble. The short lines across each bar are the 1991–2020 normal high and low for that date, so a bar reaching past them is a warmer day than usual. Week 2 is shaded: by then the runs disagree enough that only the direction matters.
The week ahead is running about 1 °C above the 1991–2020 average for the date.
Rain by day mm
The percentage under each day is how many of the 51 ensemble members give at least a millimetre — the forecast's own confidence.
Forecast data unavailable.
Forecast data unavailable.
Wind through the day km/h
Ensemble medianControl run80% of membersstrong
Temperatures are at 2 m, in the shade — a sunny square or an exposed path will
feel several degrees hotter than the chart says.
Model grid elevation here is 532 m, against 533 m for the
place itself — every 100 m of difference is worth roughly 0.6 °C.
One line per forecast centre, each the latest run of its own model.
Where they converge the outlook is settled; where they fan out, nobody knows yet.
Untick any model to take it off the charts.
AIFS is ECMWF's newer AI-based model; Open-Meteo doesn't publish a standalone
deterministic run for it, so its line here is its ensemble's control run rather
than a single model run like the other seven.
Run each line comes from: ECMWF 00zGFS 00zICON 00zUK Met Office 00zMétéo-France 00zJMA 18z WedGEM 00zAIFS 18z Wed. The oldest of these started 6 hours before the newest, so a line that looks out of step may simply be working from older information.
Rain, running total mm
Each line adds up that model’s rain as the days go on, so where it ends is the fortnight’s total that model expects. Lines stop where each model’s run does: ECMWF, GFS and AIFS reach two weeks; JMA and GEM stop around day 10, ICON and the UK Met Office around day 7, and Météo-France after about four days.
Temperature at 2 m °C
The daily rise and fall is the shape to read here: models that agree on the peaks are agreeing on the weather, not just on the averages.
Thunderstorm fuel (CAPE) J/kg
Spikes above the line are the afternoons worth watching. JMA doesn’t publish CAPE through this source, so it has no line here.
Pressure & cloud cover
Windy’s own animated map, centred on Toledo.
Open one below, then use the timeline at the bottom of the map to step through the
next two weeks, or the layers menu inside it to switch what it’s showing.
